The Championship supercomputer has churned out its predictions for the 2024-25 season, with Leeds United and Middlesbrough emerging as the favorites for automatic promotion.
However, lurking beneath the surface, the data points to a potential dark horse that could shock the division.
A season of surprises?
While Leeds are given a commanding 63.4% chance of securing a top-two finish, the unpredictable nature of the Championship means nothing is certain.
In fact, the Opta simulations saw 23 of the 24 teams win the title at least once across 10,000 runs. This inherent volatility opens the door for unexpected contenders to emerge.
As reported by theanalyst.com, even the three promoted sides – Oxford United, Derby County, and Portsmouth – finished in the top two nearly 250 times between them in the simulations.
𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐦𝐩𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐩 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬: 2024-25 Opta Projections 📈
The pre-season Opta supercomputer projections for the 2024-25 Championship are here.
▪️ Who will win promotion to the Premier League?
▪️ Outsiders for a top-six spot?
▪️ Which clubs will be relegated?— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) August 5, 2024
The usual suspects
Beyond Leeds and Middlesbrough, the supercomputer identifies several other strong promotion candidates.
West Brom (17.2% chance of automatic promotion), Norwich (14%), Burnley (18.5%), and Luton Town (16.7%) are all given a decent shot at finishing in the top two.
These clubs have either recent Premier League experience or a track record of Championship success, making them logical choices for the upper echelons of the table.
The dark horse emerges
However, it’s further down the projected table where things get interesting. Coventry City, despite finishing just 14th last season, are given an 8.9% chance of automatic promotion – higher than Sheffield United (5.8%), who were relegated from the Premier League.
This projection is particularly intriguing given Coventry’s recent trajectory.
After narrowly missing out on promotion via the play-offs in 2022-23, many expected a strong follow-up campaign. Instead, they struggled for consistency last term.
So why the optimism from the supercomputer?
The answer may lie in the underlying statistics.
Today marks 20 years since the first matches were played in the rebranded @EFL Championship (7 August 2004).@OptaJoe‘s @JRCooper26 runs through the history of the competition over that time with two articles looking at the title-winners and the key players across the 20 years.
— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) August 7, 2024
Data-driven optimism
While Coventry’s final league position was underwhelming, their expected goals (xG) data tells a different story.
The Sky Blues actually outperformed their xG by 5.8 goals last season, suggesting they were creating quality chances but perhaps falling victim to some bad luck in front of goal.
Defensively, they also showed promise: Coventry conceded 59 goals, but their expected goals against (xGA) was just 53.2, indicating they were actually more solid at the back than their results suggested.
Potential for improvement
With a full pre-season under manager Mark Robins and the potential for some shrewd additions, Coventry could be primed for a significant leap forward. The supercomputer clearly believes their underlying performances from last season provide a foundation for success.
It’s worth noting that unexpected promotion pushes are not uncommon in the Championship. Luton Town’s rise from League Two to the Premier League in just five years is a prime example of how quickly fortunes can change in this division.
Cautionary tales
Of course, for every surprise package, there’s a team that fails to live up to expectations. Cardiff City, despite finishing 12th last season, are given a league-high 49.6% chance of relegation by the supercomputer.
According to the analysis, Cardiff significantly overperformed their expected points total last term. Their expected goals for (44.3) and against (71.0) were both among the worst in the division, suggesting their mid-table finish may have flattered them.
The unpredictable nature of the Championship means these projections are far from guaranteed.
However, they do provide an intriguing glimpse into the potential narratives that could unfold over the coming season.
